Why AP had a Down Year...

We all wish that our down years were as productive as the one AP put up last year with almost 1,400 yards rushing, 18 TD's, and a career high in receptions and receiving yards.  Despite the good numbers, the fact is that Adrian still left us wanting more.

When we dig a little deeper into the numbers, we find a few key disparities.  First we will look at AP's first 10 carries of the game.  In 2007, he averaged 4.8 ypc, had 6 TD's, a long of 67 yards, and had a first down percentage of 23%.  In 2008, he averaged 5.6 ypc, had 5 TD's, a long of 67 yards, and had a first down percentage of 23.5%.  In 2009, he averaged 4.0 ypc, had 8 TD's, a long of 35 yards, and had a first down percentagae of 20%.  Why do these number matter and what do they mean?  Well here is my interpretation.

Many believe Brett Favre's passing game would ultimately benefit Adrian Peterson's running game, although it would probably cut into his production, however that didn't seem to be the case.  While we expected his yardage totals to be down, we only saw glimpses of the player that was.  Peterson signature style and longest rush came week one versus the Browns.  So what happened?

My theory: less men in the box.  How could less men in the box hurt the running game you might be asking.  Well, think about it like this. Before Favre arrived, teams continually stacked 8+ men in the box in order to stop AP but this may not be the most effective way to defend him.  When you stack everyone in the box, it gives him a greater chance to break the long run as he just needs to break a tackle, make a move and then speed to the endzone.

Common logic tells us that a balanced attack is the key to any teams success and the Vikings were able to achieve that last season even though AP more often than not left us wanting more.  Maybe we wanted more due to jealousy that Chris Johnson was getting all the hype, maybe because AP actually did have a down year or maybe Brett Favre's presence is actually detrimental to AP's running style.