Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Now that Favre is in, it’s time for Prognostication!


Well, it looks as though the Vikings' fans have gotten their wish, Favre returns for one more grab at the brass ring. Good for you! I've said it before on this blog, I think Favre makes the Vikings a much better team than they would be without him. As long as he is last year's Favre, healthy and committed, I don't see any of the Vike's other options doing any better.

But let's be honest, this season brings a whole new challenge. To assume the Vikings can sweep the Pack again this year is wishful thinking. The way the schedule played out in 2009, the Vikings beat the Packers twice in the first 7 games of the season while the Pack went 4-4 and gave up 37 sacks. In the second half of the season the Packers were 7-1 and gave up 14 sacks. The Packers were a different team for a myriad of reasons and I think had they played one of those regular season games later in the year, the results may have been different. But that was 2009, the Vikes came out on top of the division. Good for you!

That brings us to the upcoming season. The first thing I have to say is that it will be an interesting season this year. The Vikings have to go in as the favorite considering last year's results, but they are also another year older. Of course, the same can be said for the Pack, but it is different when you've been the youngest team in the league 3 years running. (I believe the first of those included the old man) Looking at the schedules, I think it is very possible that by their first meeting this year the Vikings could be in a must win situation vs the Pack at Lambeau.

Green Bay opens up on the road vs a retooling Eagles team with a QB bearing the pressure of being the full time starter for the first time. Few fans here in Philly expect them to be a contender this year. After that it's Buffalo, @Chicago, Detroit, @Washington and Miami. Not all cupcakes, but only the Eagles made the playoffs last year and the rest combined for a 26-64 record last year. (Even leaving out Detroit it is 24-50). I can see the Packers being favored in nearly all of those games. Surely they will be less than a 3 pt dog in the road games. As long as the Packers play like they did in the second half of last season it isn't unfathomable that they could open up 6-0.

On the Viking side of the border they face a much tougher opening schedule. On the road at New Orleans vs the reigning SB champs, while I think they can win, this has to be considered a potential loss. Follow that up with a visit to the Jets, the AFC Championship runner up last year, and hosting the Cowboys. Their first 5 opponents combined for a 42-38 record (without Detroit it's 40-24). Without too much trouble, the Vikes could be 3-2 or even 2-3 coming into Lambeau. Not a death sentence, but it will certainly put the "must win" onus on the Vikings.

The schedule obviously turns in the Vikings favor after the first matchup, as they face the Pats the following week and then a slew of also-rans the remainder of the season. (Packers excluded). AZ will be a shadow of their former selves without Warner and Boldin, and the rest are teams who have too many unknowns at this point to say for sure, but the Vikings should be favorites in most of the games. So it is a good bet the Vikings go 8-2 after the first matchup.

While the Vikings schedule softens, the Packers are just beginning a brutal part of their schedule facing 3 tough road games (including the Vikes) sandwiching Dallas at home. (@Jets, Dallas, @Vikings and @Atlanta). Throw in a potential West contender in SF and a visit to the Pats and we have ourselves a dogfight. Being realistic, I have to say after game 1 vs the Vikings the Packers have an upside chance at 7-2 and a downside of 4-5. They will probably be underdogs in the road games (except Det) and slight favorites at home, but I see losses @ Minn, @NE and maybe @NYJ. Throw in a stinker and that is 5-4 to end the season.

Whatever way it works out, it makes for another great season of football. We won't really know how interesting until Favre stands under center on 9 Sep, but we have a few weeks to speculate. I invite everyone to make their own projections, no one is wrong…Yet! Make sure you share this with your friends; I'd hate to have my genius go unnoticed!

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