The season is nearly here! Rejoice, Rejoice! Before things get underway, I feel now is the time to breakdown the season… before it happens. This is the NFL; no one is looking for moral victories or brownie points. What matters is making the playoffs and ultimately the Super Bowl. Teams may rebuild, but without clear direction, perpetual losing seasons are inevitable (HELLO Cleveland!) That's why I'll break them down into those I see as SB Contenders, Playoff teams, Bubble teams, Dark Horses and teams that just don't have a chance.. SB contenders: Saints: What needs to be said? Although I didn't think they were the best team last year, they came through when it counted. The opportune defense will need to continue for them to get back to the Superbowl, but they will be in the hunt. Indy: I think the Colts avoid the SB loser curse this year. (Since 2000, only the Seahawks (2005) and last year's Patriots made it into the playoffs, both losing rd 1) Manning is too good and they win 11-12 games every year. The only thing that will derail a run at it is a Manning injury. Vikings: With Favre back, I give them a shot. With Sidney Rice out of the lineup and only 4 WRs, they will need to find a way to make plays. If Rice doesn't return, I don't think they have a shot. Packers: They were a different team after a 4-4 start last year. Rodgers is the real deal and the Defense seems to have adjusted to the 3-4 scheme. It hurts having Harris and Bigby on the PUP, but the "soft" part of their schedule is early, and the Offense looks like it will score enough to make up for mistakes. Dallas: If I only watched the preseason I couldn't put them in this group. They've looked out of sync up to this point, but Romo and the offense will need to play like they did late last season to have a chance. They have a decent defense, but they won't win too many games if they don't score at least 20 ppg. Chargers: This team has been one of the most talented over the past few years, but has always come up short. Playing in the weak AFC West will help, but someone needs to step up in V Jackson's absence to help out Rivers. If they get what everyone expects out of Ryan Matthews, that takes pressure off the passing game. Ravens: Flacco is coming in to his own and with the addition of Boldin and Houshmanzadeh they have 3 solid WRs to throw to. Add in Ray Rice and this should be a potent offense. Not necessarily explosive, but they will control the ball and eat up the clock as they score. The defense is not what it was in the past, but they will be top 10 and good enough to make a run. In the playoffs: Jets: With all of the hoopla surrounding this team to start the year, let's be honest: the Jets were lucky to even make the playoffs last year. To their credit, they took advantage of the opportunity and made it to the AFC Championship. Their defense is obviously their strong point, especially with Revis back in the fold, and that will win them several games but nothing about "Sanchise" and the offense says "Superbowl" to me. I had more teams in this group, somehow I couldn't lock anyone else into their slot confidently so… Bubble Teams: Niners: They are the class of the worst division in football. If any of the other 3 teams puts things together, they might not make it. Patriots: It is Brady, Belichick and company so they will be in the mix, but I think the Jets will win the division this year so they will have to fight with the other AFC hopefuls for a Wild Card slot. The defense isn't anywhere near what it was in their heyday so it will be up to Brady, Moss and Welker to keep other teams within reach. Cincinnati: After winning the division last year the Bengals laid an egg against the Jets in Rd one of the playoffs. It serves them right for letting the Jets in without a fight. That being said, they faded down the stretch last year, losing 3 out of 4 to end the year. If they expect to be in the running this year, they need to play better down the stretch. Titans: After a 0-6 start, TN went 8-2 to end the season last year. If they can stay healthy they have a chance to get the WC. Week 2 against the Steelers will be a key game early. Texans: Another team battling for the WC from the AFC South. They finished 9-7 and just out of the playoffs due to their AFC record. (They were just 1-5 within the division!) They need to be 4-2 within the division order to get in. Falcons: Atlanta is solid on both sides of the ball and I've seen many projections putting them atop the NFC South. Possible, since no team has repeated as NFC South champs since the league went to 4 divisions per conference back in 2002. If Matt Ryan can come back after his "Sophomore Slump", the Falcons offense has plenty of weapons. The defense should be bolstered by their players returning from injury, Free agents and the draft. That will get them to above average. They benefit by hosting their toughest extra-divisional competition in BAL and GB, but I think it will be tough to win the South. Giants: Just 2 yrs post Super Bowl, the Giants have been a team in transition. Out of the playoffs last year at 8-8, the turnover (and idiocy) at the WR position has been a problem along with inconsistency in the backfield. (The managed only 2 individual rushing performances over 100yds) The NFC is strong at the top this year, but for the last WC it drops off. That gives the Giants a chance to sneak in for the last spot. I'd Be Surprised, but don't count them out Dark Horses: Carolina: The Panthers finished on a high note last year, knocking off both NFC finalists while finishing on a 3 game win streak. Granted the Saints game was meaningless in Wk 17, but only because they knocked off the Vikings in Wk 15. They have a strong backfield with D Williams and J Stewart. There are issues on the D-line since Peppers moved on, but their schedule outside the division will give them a shot. Week 1 vs the Giants a must win if they want to make it. Miami: Chad Henne has been quiet but effective for the Dolphins since becoming the starter. The addition of Brandon Marshall will make him better. The 1-2 punch of Ricky and Ronnie will still be good. Their defense is average, but serviceable; they've taken a step back there but should improve as the season progresses. Steelers: With Big Ben's suspension for 4 games, they will need to find a way to start at least 2-2, even then it might be a tough task. They face 3 other playoff contenders (IMO) without Roethlisberger in the first 4 weeks. The TN game week 2 may decide their wildcard fate. Washington: Not a sexy pick, but as much as I hate Shanahan for Super Bowl XXXII, he finds ways to win. I'm not a huge McNabb fan, but he tends to play it safe and can be effective in the West Coast offense. If Shanahan can get the offense moving and straighten out the defense, they have an outside chance to get the last WC spot. Arizona: If anyone from the NFC West has a chance, it is the Cardinals. Someone has to win the division and SF is no lock. Whisenhunt is a good coach and they still have talent, but the QB and O-line situation will make it difficult. The defense was only 14th last year and has lost key players at LB and S. All these combined with a tough extra-divisional schedule don't bode well for a return to the postseason. Let's face it; these teams have ZERO chance of getting into the playoffs, much less the Super Bowl. Not because they are all horrible but who they have to beat to get there. Buffalo, Tampa, St. Louis, Oakland, Denver, Cleveland, Chicago, Detroit, Philadelphia, Seattle, Jacksonville, and KC. My Picks for 2010: AFC Division Winners: Ravens, Jets, Colts, Chargers Wildcards: Texans, Patriots Wild Card Playoffs: Jets over Texans, Chargers over Patriots Divisional Playoffs: Chargers over Ravens, Colts over Jets AFC Championship: Chargers over Colts NFC Division Winners: Packers, Cowboys, Saints, Niners Wildcards: Vikings, Falcons Wild Card Playoffs: Vikings over Niners, Cowboys over Falcons Divisional Playoffs: Packers over Cowboys, Vikings over Saints NFC Championship: Packers over Vikings Super Bowl: Packers over Chargers Note: I realize this puts the Packers as the 2nd seed, but it works out to be so much more fun! Happy Football Season!
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
Season in Preview
Saturday, September 4, 2010
Vikings close to signing Houshmanzadeh?
Reports out of Fox6 Sports out of Milwaukee, Wisconsin of all places, said earlier that the Vikings had signed Houshmanzadeh. Now there are conflicting reports that say it's not accurate, at least not yet.
There is no doubt in my mind that something is going on however. With the release of Javon Walker, the Vikings only have 4 WR's on the roster. Look for them to pick up someone that was cut. By the way, what was your favorite Javon Walker moment as a member of the Minnesota Vikings?
This is all very ironic considering TJ Houshmanzadeh forever became known as "Doushmanzadeh" by some Vikings fans after he spurned them for Seattle, citing Minnesotas quarterback's. This was last year before anyone knew Favre was coming to town.
It's also hilarious for Seattle who paid the guy and arm and a leg, and will still be on the hook for his guaranteed money, his new team will pay him around the veteran minimum and the Seahawks will pay the rest of the tab, around 15 million or so. That may be one of the worst free agent signings in the history of the NFL.
He wasn't horrible last year, as he caught 70 plus balls and almost 1000 yards. But he pissed and moaned and sulked the whole time he was there. Maybe it was the rain, maybe he didn't like grunge, or maybe he couldn't stand Starbucks, but will he come crawling back to the Vikings organization with his tail between his legs?
Stay tuned.
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
State of the Packers
A 35-point route of the Indianapolis Colts is how the Green Bay Packers ended the all important third preseason game. Don't expect the starters to play much in the last preseason game if they play at all. I've been hearing all types of reaction to the Packers strong outing last Thursday from "wow, what a performance" to "It's only preseason don't read too much into it". The one main constant is that of the Packers that played in the game most made it through fairly healthy.
Even though no notable players were injured during the game, Al Harris and Atari Bigby are among the players that were placed of the dreaded PUP (physically unable to perform) list. That means for six weeks the Packers defense will have to do without two quality veterans. The result is a more youthful secondary that will be led by pro bowlers Charles Woodson and Nick Collins, Tramon Williams and Morgan Burnett will round out the starting secondary. Tramon hasn't proven that he can play well on a consistent basis while Burnett is just a rookie. Burnett has the task of filling in for hard-hitting Bigby, he will have to control the secondary coverages as well as help out against the run, which some wold say is too much for a rookie. Burnett's upside is that he's a ball hawk as he displayed when he picked off Peyton last week.
With high expectations the Packers will live and die with that pass defense, if it holds up the first six weeks of the season this could be "the" year for them especially with that high powered offense. If the defense doesn't hold up then we got to hope that Aaron Rodgers can go point for point with every other team they face this season, starting with week 1 vs that Eagles high octane offense.
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
EJ Henderson's Amazing Road to Recovery
When I saw EJ Henderson going through drills full speed at training camp this year I couldn't believe my eyes. Here is a guy who was riding a motorized scooter around the Vikings practice facility last winter. He has a permanent titanium rod in his leg. After looking closely at the picture above you'll know why. He fractured his femur. For those of you that don't know, the femur is that really big bone in your thigh.
EJ had to talk the organization out of placing him on the PUP, and they wanted to be cautious with an injury like that. But here he is, 6 months later, starting at middle linebacker again, laying people out in the Vikings preseason game against the 49ers.
Is this guy even human? He's running around at age 30 with a metal pole holding his leg together!!!!
I don't know how the Vikings will do this year, but one thing I do know is they have the heart and soul of the defense back, and its nothing short of amazing.
Is the Pack in Trouble at CB?
KC Joyner
"Tramon Williams' 7.7 overall YPA is mediocre, and that includes his time as a backup. Williams' YPA in six games as Al Harris' replacement at right cornerback was a dangerously high 8.7. Harris' YPA last year was 7.6. That means that Williams' YPA was over a yard worse than Harris' in what was a definite off-year for Harris."
Aaron Rodgers New Look, Thoughts on Flynn
Here is a great interview with Aaron Rodgers sporting a new look and a few kind words about Matt Flynn.
http://www.packers.com/media-center/videos/QB-Aaron-Rodgers-Interview-/147c9bc4-c656-44fd-9776-07bfabcabd2b
How Bad is Favre's Ankle?
I really didn't notice Favre favoring the ankle or trying to protect it in the game, which leads me to believe he probably isn't having too much pain "during" the games. A big part of the problem is probably when he comes out and sits on the sidelines for a while, or when he wakes up the day after, which is more than likely why they decided to have him start the second half to see how it would respond.
Favre recently told SI's Peter King that he had a lubricant, most likely a product such as Ostenil, injected into his ankle. Who, what, when, where, and why? First of all, Ostenil (not sure if this is what Favre got, but something similar) is a lubricant for the joints to help with pain and mobility. It basically bonds to your natural Hyaluronic Acid and makes it stronger to add more cushion for any impact as well as increase mobility. Ostenil is given in 3 doses each one week apart and while the effects are not felt immediately, they are usually felt within the first couple weeks. The reports were that Favre received an injection between a series, but there seems to be no benefit to that other than they wanted to administer it as quickly as possible to get the real effects for the beginning of the season. After the series of 3 injections, the effects of this product can last up to 6 months (which would be around February) and also last up to as long as 12 months.
Again, it doesn't appear Favre took this injection for any immediate remedies for pain, but took it for increased mobility and less pain down the line further into the season. I myself have a hard time (especially being a Pro-Favre person) counting Brett Favre out for this season already when we take a look back at his career and some of the injuries he has played through (broken thumb on throwing hand, pulled/torn muscles, concussions, bone spurs, etc). Also, out of Favre's 309 consecutive starts including playoffs, he has only not finished the game because of injury in 6 of those contests. Until he is down and out, you know teams are still worried about what he can bring to the Vikings this season.
Monday, August 30, 2010
Pre-Season: Game 3 (Part II)
Yesterday I broke down the performance of the offense in Saturday nights victory over the Seattle Seahawks. The defense has been head and shoulders over the offense, which is normal this time of year.
DEFENSE:
The defensive line has played very well against the run this pre-season, which doesn't surprise anyone, but they have failed to get pressure on the quarterback. Matt Hasselbeck had plenty of time to stand in the pocket and scan the field. The Vikings have gotten the majority of their pressure in the past with their front four, this is important because they don't have to blitz to get pressure.
The linebacker play has been very good as well. With E.J. Henderson back, the Vikings have arguably one of the best linebacker corps in the NFL. Chad Greenway and Ben Leber are the best linebackers in the NFL that no one talks about.
The corner back position is one of the more interesting areas of the team. Obviously Antoine Winfield will start, and rookie Chris Cook looks like he will get the nod over Asher Allen and Lito Sheppard. Chris Cook is a tough physical corner that could eventually turn into a shutdown corner, something the Vikings haven't had in forever!
Safety is the biggest area of concern on the defense. It was a mess last year with Madieu Williams and Tyrell Johnson starting. Jamarca Sanford is leading the battle for the starting position over Tyrell Johnson. The safety level of play must improve if the Vikings are going to improve on their pass defense from a year ago.
SPECIAL TEAMS:
Rhys Lloyd got a chance to showcase his kickoff ability, but did nothing to help his chances of making the 53 man roster. He has had nine kickoffs this pre-season and all nine have been returned. There is no way the Vikings hold a roster spot for a kicker who can't kick the ball out of the end zone. They need the extra spot for either a wide receiver or a defensive lineman. I will be shocked if Rhys Lloyd makes the team. He might make tomorrows cuts, but he will be bye bye on Saturday.
NOTES:
* The reports are that Brett Favre had a 'lubrication' shot injected into his ankle after Saturday nights game. This is very concerning, and Favre even went on to say the he isn't sure if he can even finish the season. He said his mind is telling him one thing, and his body is telling him another.
* The Metrodome is still a dump, but it looked more like the Vikings dump. The red bars on the outside of the stadium are now painted purple, all of the Twins and Gophers stuff has been taken down. The turf is new and doesn't have any baseball cut outs for bases.
* Add me on twitter at http://www.twitter.com/vikeologist
SKOL VIKES!
Sunday, August 29, 2010
Pre-Season: Game 3
The Vikings played the Seattle Seahawks in their third and most important pre-season game of the 2010 season. They won the game, and also were able to identify some good things, and also some bad things on offense. I will breakdown the offense today. Check back tomorrow for the analysis of the defense.
OFFENSE:
Offensively the Vikings looked much better than the prior two weeks of the pre-season, but the offensive line still looked very shaky. This is partly due to the fact that starting center John Sullivan is out, and right guard Anthony Herrera had to play center. I still don't think the Vikings offensive line is as good as advertised. Bryant McKinnie is slow and really struggles with elite and smaller defensive ends. Steve Hutchinson is showing his age in my opinion. He isn't nearly as dominant as he once was, and he gets blown off the ball a lot. John Sullivan is only in his second year, but he is very undersized and gets pushed back too often, allowing a rush up the middle on the quarterback, or stuffing a run up the middle. Anthony Herrera is also undersized and allows linemen to get low on him and push him off the ball. Phil Loadholt is very young, and I think he will eventually be moved to left tackle, after they let Bryant McKinnie go in a year or so.
The Vikings once again struggled to run the football. Adrian Peterson had a very nice 24 yard touchdown run, but he only gained 13 yards on his other 10 carries. This must improve if the Vikings are going to be as productive as last year, without Sidney Rice.
Wide Receiver is another big question mark with the loss of Sidney Rice. Percy Harvin was back, and he made an immediate impact, and played very well. Greg Camarillo played very well. He will quickly become Favre's favorite target because he runs very good routes, has great hands, and finds ways to get open. He will become a huge third down receiver for the Vikings. Bernard Berrian needs to step up, and he bobbled a slant pass and the ball went into the air and was returned for a pick six. This cannot happen, and he must step up. Javon Walker made a nice touchdown catch, but was pretty nonexistent the rest of the game. He must prove that he is in shape, and can still play in this league.
It is only pre-season, and there is no reason to panic, but the biggest area to improve is offensive line. If the offensive line plays well, everything else will fall into place.
Until tomorrow....SKOL VIKES!
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